Archive for June, 2008

Monday, June 30th, 2008

HOUSING STATS STAGGER FOR MOST BUILDERS

One Man’s Meat Is Another Man’s Poison.  During May housing starts were down 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 975,000.  That’s the lowest rate since March of 1991.  Single family building permits were down 4% from April’s level but multi-family permits were up 6.4%.  Not much doubt where the action is.   As it was to be expected new home inventory continued to decline as builders continued to cut back on building.  The May inventory of 454,000 new homes was the lowest since May of 2005.  Existing home inventory continues to increase and is closing in on 5 million units.  That is equal to about eleven and one-half months of supply.  The nation’s “big three” problem areas continuing to hold an upper hand. Foreclosures continue to increase, rude crude prices are jumping and up and away food prices are following right behind them. Sane lending practices, a crash program to utilize our vast oil shale deposits and energy programs that don’t focus on corn would help these problems tremendously.  Floods in the nation’s bread basket and the looming threat of Obama’s tax and fiscal policies don’t make the light at the end of the tunnel look much brighter.  However, it’s time for savy home buyers to do some serious thinking about and looking at homes.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Sunday, June 29th, 2008

WHY ARE SUCCESSFUL INTERNET GURUS LIKE SUCCESSFUL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS?

Many people who desperately want to start successfull internet businesses never do.  They never do because they never start.  They never start because they feel they have to have all the pieces in place and perfectly done before they start.  They are never satisfied with the idea or site they begin with so - nothing happens.  I don’t know of a single big name internet success who doesn’t say, “Forget perfect!  Pick something, throw up a site and let time and what you learn develop the site.”  If you think about a real estate developer developing a large subdivision with homes, activity club, golf course, swimming pools, tennis courts, walking trails, homeowner activities and more, most of the time these facilities and activies are not in place for those who buy homes during the being stages of the subdivision’s development.  One of the Triangle’s leading developers of high end subdivisions, Creedmoor Partners, just announced the opening of the Family Activity Club at their Hasentree subdivision.  Hasentree is a gated 1,000 acre project in the Wake Forest area with stunning homes, some of which are priced at nearly $5 million, that surround a magnificent Tom Fazio designed golf course.  During last year’s Parade of Homes some 10 homes in Hasentree were featured on the Parade.  The Family Actiivty Club was a future promise but a long way from reality as were a number of other facilities the area will have.  The sale of homes in an area like this help to make possible the facilities the subdivision will eventually have.  If Creedmoor Partners, or any other developer of a major subdivision had to have everything in place before starting to sell homes, the subdivision would rarely happen.  Most often the profits to be had from the subdivision don’t come until its last phase so the “goodies” they offer have to be spread out over a long period of time with ongoing land and home sales helping to over the costs.  The Hasentree Family Activity Club offers three outdoor pools, a double-loop waterslide and six HarTru lighted clay tennis courts.  The Club’s fitness center offers personalized exercise training, yoga, body sculpting and spin classes.  A media and game room features a 110″ flat screen TV, a zen room, private ladies spa treatment room, a staffed Kids Korner and much more.  A children’s playground next to the water pavilion features treehouses, climbing structures, bridges and rope courses.  So, if you have been thinking about starting an internet business I am not saying not to lay out a plan.  I am saying, lay out the basics and tthen ake a page out the real estate developer’s handbook and get going.  They don’t start with everything in place so what makes you think you have to?   Want to know more about Hasentree?  Call me or send me an email at the number or address given below.

John Fish  (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Saturday, June 28th, 2008

DOWNTOWN DEVELOPER DIGS IT

Raleigh, North Carolina.  Ground Broken On Blount Street Commons.  In a recent blog I mentioned that some planned downtown projects have been put on hold because of lending and housing industry problems.  However, this week ground was broken on Blount Street Commons.  It is a redevelopment project of 21 acres in downtown Raleigh that will include new as well as redone homes and multifamily dwellings.  The project was originally announced in 2005.  It will comprise the building of 495 condominiums, town houses and single-family homes.  There will also be 110,000 square feet of shops.  Homes that will be renovated include several of historical value.  Prices will range from the high $200s to over $1 million.  There are those around town who have little liking for all the time, effort and money being expended on the downtown area by the City Counsel and various developers.  Overall, I think it is a healthy thing for the entire Triangle area and strongly indicates to corporations that this is a very vibrant area and one they need to give serious consideration to when looking for places to expand in. 

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: wwwJohnFish.com

Friday, June 27th, 2008

DUKE UNIVERSITY COMPUTER SCIENTISTS CREATE INVISIBLE ROBOTS

Durham, North Carolina.  Microscopic Controllable Robots Fit On The Head Of A Pin.  Bruce Donald at Duke University along with neurobiologist Richard Mooney and physicist Gleb Finkelstein have created microrobots that are totally steerable and that may eventually explore brain tissue to help find out how the human brain works.  It isn’t quite the “Fantastic Voyage” science fiction movie yet but it isn’t far removed.  Large groups of these microrobots are now controllable.  Professor Ronald Fearing, who runs a microrobotics lab at the University of California at Berkeley, likens what Bruce and his team are doing to “shrinking a factory to the size of a computer chip.”  Other specific uses for this technology are not clear but are probably vast and far reaching.

So, what has this to do with real estate.  Nothing and everything.  If it was nothing it would be worth mentioning just because of how interesting it is.  However, there are a multitude of diverse programs in many different fields now in progress throughout the Triangle.  They draw talented people from all across the nation and all over the world to this area.  The kind of brain power this takes fuels the engine of the technology machine that is the Research Triangle.  All of these people need a place to live and that creates the need for more and more homes, townhomes, condos and apartments.  Just today a met a gentleman who is in the business of designing golf courses.  There is a never ending supply of interesting people doing interesting things.  That’s what keeps my juices boiling and I hope that these things are a source of fasination and interest to you as well.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

HOMEOWNERS - WHEN YOU THINK YOU ARE GETTING A RIDICULOUS OFFER - ARE YOU?

Raleigh, North Carolina.  The Home Price Negotiating “Game” Is Done Best When Done Dispassionately.  Unfortunately, that is usually not the situation when it comes to selling a home.  If you to to Vegas you KNOW that if you engage in any kind of gambling the odds are EXTREMELY in favor of the house and heavily AGAINST you.  I know that, you know that, and people who choose to gamble know that.  I am not going to go into the psychology involved of why people gamble despite knowing this.  Of course, there is a lot of psychology involved in the purchase and sale of a home.  It is not based on the “take a chance - win big or lose big” type of gamblers psychology but rather (hopefully) on the more business like factors of the economy, the sale price of comparable homes, etc.  Overall this is pretty much the case but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t many emotional obstacles may need to be overcome such as “This is where our children were born”, “You don’t know how many improvements we have made”, “Bob and Betty’s home isn’t nearly as nice as ours and it sold for a lot more than you are saying we should price our home at.”  With regard to the last comment, the information the Seller’s have is most often notoriously incorrect.  Usually because Bob and Betty didn’t tell the truth about what they got and don’t think that their friends or neighbors can or will find out. 

The psychology of buying or selling a home depends on who the “players” are and what their needs and motivations are. The buyers may be a couple needing a home because they want to get away from apartment living, because they are being transfered in from another area, because they are first time buyers and want a home of their own, they are empty nesters who want to downsize, they have a growing family and need more space, they are enjoying the fruits of their success and want to buy or build their “dream home”, they want to move to a location that lets them do things they really like - hiking and biking in the mountains, swimming or lounging at the beach, etc., or they may be investors looking to start or increase their real estate holdings.  Sellers most often have the very same considerations. 

Enter the real estate agent.  To start with, regardless of the reasons the buyers or sellers have for buying or selling a home, he or she (the agent) has to deal with the Offer To Purchase And Contract form.  In North Carolina, prior to the state adopting Buyer’s Agency, this contract was highly leveraged in favor of sellers.  They were considered to be the parties most at risk in such transactions and as such were given more consideration.  When the state adopted Buyer’s Agency, as one of the agency types available, changes were made in the form that decidedly favored buyers.  Changes recently made in the form both lengthened it and again shifted it in favor of the sellers.  The form and “flavor” of the form have to be taken into consideration and most certainly help dictate the way Brokers advise their Buyers and Sellers as to how an offer should be structured and subsequent responses to it by both sides.

Sellers quite often have a strong sentimental attachement to the home they are selling which can make establishing a sale price difficult for the listing agent.  When an area, the state or the nation enters an economic decline pricing is often forced on the seller that makes subsequent negotiations even more difficult.  The fact remains that the existing market in any given area is affected by both local and national factors and will to a great extent determine what a home is (or should be) listed for and most certainly what it eventually sells for. 

All of this comes to mind because of an offer I recently made to a Seller’s Agent in behalf of a buyer.  The offer was at a price below the listing price and was based on a lot research done to determine a fair price for the buyer to pay and one that the home would appraise for.  It was one of the realtively few times when I felt that a home under consideration by one of my buyer clients was well over priced.  None-the-less, the seller was having none of it and made it plain we were relatives of the original robber barrons and that no negotiations were in order.  It may well be that the listing agent had little choice in what the home is listed for and did all that was possible to get the home properly priced.  Whether that is the case or not, the market will determine how soon the home sells and at what price.  The selling price may well be further modified by what an appraiser for a buyer’s lender has to say.  So, sellers if your listing agent presents you with a market analysis that is not to your liking you should most certainly make him or her back up his or her conclusions but understand that you are best served by not letting emotion rule the situation.  Furthermore, once a price is determined you would be well advised to be prepared to negotiate price and terms as well.  A plane that nevers gets off the ground “ain’t goin nowhere!”.

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

TORONTO PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES COMPANY MOVING TO RTP

Research Triangle Park Hooks Another Drug Manufacturer.  Patheon of Toronto will be moving its headquarters to RTP.  That move will create 100 new jobs.  The company manufactures drugs as well as providing services.  Last year it had revenues of more than $650 million.  They have already found a site in RTP for their laboratory and are now searching for a headquarters site.  Their timetable calls for them to move into a lab this summer and into a headquarters facility sometime before the end of the year.  While the company has been losing money they have also been restructuring.  Loses have been cut substantially and revenues have shown a strong increase.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Monday, June 16th, 2008

DOWNTOWN RALEIGH - ONWARD AND UPWARD

Raleigh, North CarolinaGreg Sandreuter Proposes Four Major Buildings For Downtown Raleigh.  A plan Greg initially presented a year ago has been revised and expanded.  It now calls for two 39 story buildings and two 29 story buildings.  It would also have many street level shops and restaurants, a hotel, condos, half a million square feet of offices and 1,600 parking spaces.  Construction would start in two years and take eight years to complete.  Adding this to all the other downtown projects, both underway and planned, would take what has been (just in the recent past) a pretty drab an dumpy downtown and transform it into almost anyone’s vision of what a new and vibrant American city should look like.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Sunday, June 15th, 2008

PINEHURST - IS RITZ-CARLTON COMING TO PINEHURST?

Pinehurst, North CarolinaRitz-Carlton And Golden Bear Rumored To Be Interested In Stonehill Capital Group Purchase.  Anyone who knows a hook from a slice knows the golf courses in Pinehurst; especially the fabled Number 2 course.  The Stonehill Capital Group from Florida know the area so well that in March they purchased 1,442 acres in a small community near Pinehurst called Foxfire.  The purchase price was $19.7 million.  The buyers say they will keep their cool about what to do with the property until the capital markets calm down.  The noise is that Ritz-Carlton, set to open their first hotel property in Charlotte (and also their first venture into North Carolina waters), may be interested in building a hotel on the Stonehill property.  Another party rumored to be interested in this property is Jack Nicklaus.  The property is large enough to handle two golf courses and the two parties in question have an interest in locations that attract the premium golfer.

EXPLOSIVE GROWTH FOR LATINO COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION -  This credit union, directed and marketed toward the latino market, opened its first office in Durham in 2000.  Their projections called for 500 new members during the first year.  That goal was reached after only two months of operation.  Now they have five branches across North Carolina and they plan to open three more.  Deposits total $48 million and they have $51 million in loans to members.

BITS AND PIECES:   If you have ever tried to secure loads to truck racks you know the process can be a real pain.  Also, securing tarps over loads of you-name-it can try the patience of a saint.  A product that can ease that pain and strain is called the Figure 9 Rope Tightener.  It’s manufactured by Nite Ize.  For more info try www.niteize.com or call 800-678-6483.   Another neat tool is Miter Shears from Lee Valley Tools.  That’s right - shears.  www.leevalley.com

The current issue of Carolina Architecture & Design has its usual full compliment of jaw dropping homes.  Several areas of the home in the Elk River Country Club that I find of particular interest are its closet area, wine cellar and home theatre.  The phrase that spins around in the back of my head is “when you care enough to buy the very best.”  I will hear from someone that this isn’t an accurate transcription but you get the point.  Another featured home is a stone, French architecture beauty in Sylva, NC.  Try the screened porch of this one! 

To all you dads out there - Happy Father’s Day!

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com 

  

Thursday, June 12th, 2008

TRIANGLE - FOR WHOM THE ROAD TOLLS

Triangle, North Carolina - North Carolina State House Paves The Way For TriEx Toll Road.  The North Carolina State House has voted to give the North Carolina Turnpike Authority $25 million a year for 39 years to help get the 18 mile Triangle Expressway toll road built.  There have been a lot of plans proposed to get the balance of I-540 off the dime and built but most of them put the building and completion of the task a long way into the future.  While there are those who deny the need for the rest of I-540 to be built most feel that the economic benefits to all areas of the Triangle would be substantial.  At this point the road has picked up the nickname of TriEx (Kodak used to make a high speed black and white film by that name but I digress).  The annual $25 million donation to the TriEx kitty only covers the anticipated gap between toll collections and the building, operation and maintainance of the road.  Starting in 2010 the $25 million is to be increased to $49 million per year.  Tolls won’t be collected by pitching change into baskets at toll gates.  Rather, consistent users will set up a toll account.  A transponder attached to the users windshield will deduct money from the account every time a user uses the road.  Those without an account can register their license plate.  A camera will take pictures of the plate and drivers would then be sent an invoice.  Sound convoluted?  Sound like Big Brother?  My guess is that by the time this all shakes out a lot of changes will be made.  None-the-less, by combining the 3.4 mile Triangle Parkway through RTP, a 12.4 mile extension of I-540 from N.C. 55 at RTP to N.C. 55 at Holly Springs and linking them with an existing section of I-540 the road could be open by 2011.  That seems too good to be true by ”a mile” but what the heck, considering time frame of 12 to 20 years that has been talked about as necessary to get the project completed, getting done in the next six years, let alone three or four, would be a tremendous leap forward.

John Fish (919) 696-3474  Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Monday, June 9th, 2008

RALEIGH - THE PROVERBIAL “OUT OF TOWN BUYER” STRIKES AGAIN

Raleigh, North Carolina.  Home Of Red Hat Co-Founder Sells For $5 Million.  Bob Young, co-founder of Red Hat software company sold his home inside the beltline for a cool $5 million.  The name of the out of town buyer, has not been disclosed.  Bob and his wife Nancy purchased the 65 year old Oberlin Road home for $1.75 million in 1999.  It is an 11,530 square foot Georgian style home with 5 bedrooms.  During their ownership they have made extensive renovations to the home.  The purchase price of $5 million is the largest amount ever paid for a Wake County home.  Since January 1 there have been 14 closings of homes at $1.5 million and above and there are 5 more under contract ranging from $2 million to $5 million.  Yes there is a lot of expensive inventory on the market but there are also high value sales.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com