Triangle, North Carolina.  Triangle Home Sales Continue Decline During April.  April was the tenth month of declining sales in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties.  March saw a 28 percent drop in sales vs. March of 2007 while April limped home down 24.4 percent.  The average sale price was down 1.45 percent to $228,183.  This was the first decline after 26 consecutive months of increases.  Sales of existing homes in April of last year numbered 2,540 while April of this year produced the sale of only 1,920.  Pending sales were down 27.3 percent, year to year, the inventory of unsold was up 27 percent, adverage days on market was 106 days vs. 79 days last year and showings were down 15 percent.  Housing starts in Wake County were at a 10 year low.  While home prices fell 3.1 percent nationally during the first quarter of this year, Raleigh and Cary home prices increased 4.92 percent and Durham prices were up 3.92 percent.  Furthermore, owners of homes in the Triangle priced at $300,000 and less aren’t having any problems selling their homes.  So, how bad the storms were during April depended on where you were and what you had to offer.

John Fish (919) 696-3474  Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com 

Triangle, North Carolina.  March Sales Of Existing Homes Down 28 Percent Vs. 2007.  Wake, Durham, Johnston and Orange county sales totaled 1,875 homes.  That’s the ninth month of declining sales is a row.  Unfortunately, future sales indicators are not very promising either.  Pending sales for March were down 27 percent.  Unsold home inventory, swollen by foreclosures, increased 24.4 percent to 14,492.  That number is equal to a nine month supply.  Wake building permits slid to 510 for the month.  That’s a high dive of 47 percent.  Showings were down 15 percent.  Furthermore, 42 percent of owners dropped prices on their listings.  Last year that figure was 32 percent.

On the plus side the average Triangle home sale price squeezed out a 0.6 percent increase to $235,175.  Not too surprisingly spec inventory, despite lending problems and everything else, was up almot 12 percent year to year.  Why?  National builders have been cutting back on starts for quite some time but local custom builders have existing loans to repay as well as paying for lots that have contracted for.  They know the gamble but they each hope their homes will be the ones that sell.  Average spec home prices are a far cry from the average sale price of Triangle homes.  The average spec home price in March was $608,822 in Orange county, $434,810 in Wake County, $289,091 in Durham county and $249,213 in Johnston county.  Homes selling for under $300,000, in particular, are still enjoying strong demand.  During several prior blogs I have discussed home staging and the wisdom of seller’s doing it.  Those who are doing a good job of it are reaping the rewards of better sales prices and faster sales.  So, those of your trying to save money by just “straightening up” take notice.  In this market that is penny wise and pound foolish thinking.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Triangle, North Carolina.  Existing Home Sales Down Eighth Straight Month.  February existing home sales in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties totaled 1,590.  That’s a decline of 16 percent vs. a year ago.  While that is considerably better than January’s 29.6 percent drop future indicators don’t indicate that things will get much better anytime soon.  Pending sales were down 23 percent, withdrawn listings increased 29 percent, average days on market rose to 96 days vs. 83 days and unsold inventory of homes is up 27.2 pecent; all figures vs. the previous year.  The unsold inventory figure is equal to a 10 month supply.  Another figure that is not pleasant is that residential building permits were down 34 percent from January-February of last year in Wake county.  While that will help reduce the inventory of homes the market will have to wade through in the future it certainly hurts builders and all the people and trades who depend on them. 

Of course the factors behind these declines are slowing job growth and foreclosures both nationally and locally as well as the problems of the credit markets.  Existing home sales in the Triangle are down 22 percent from the peak quarter in 2006.  BY comparison Las Vegas and Miami are down 65 percent while Sacremento is down 58 percent.  However, home prices, at least for the time being, continue to increase in the Triangle.  The average existing home price increased 3.1% in February to $244,363. 

John Fish - 919-696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com 

Triangle, North Carolina.  January Figures Not Rosy.  During January the unemployment figure for the eight county Triangle area of North Carolina increased to 3.9% from 3.8%.  By the same token the state’s jobless was the same as the nation’s or 4.9%.  The nation’s housing malaise, again for January, was a drag on the Triangle as well.  January Triangle home sales were down 29.6%.  The next report of labor market figures for the Triangle will be released on April 2 while Triangle home sales for February should be available in the next few days.

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com 

Triangle, North Carolina.   Days On Market.  One of the first things buyers ask about a home they are interested in is “How many days has it been on the market?”.   The idea behind the question, of course, is that if it has been on the market for quite a few days they can make a low ball offer and get the home for a much more favorable price.  In the vast majority of cases that’s not the case but it doesn’t keep them from thinking so.  Days on Market is a misleading figure at best; espcially for new homes.  Some builders put information on a home in the Multiple Listing Service shortly after construction starts so that people who might be interested in the area the home is in and who are looking for a particular kind of home may find it and, in effect, do a presale.  As time goes by the potential buyer will have continually less options.  Depending on the stage the home is in when they evidence their interest, the options will range from the substantial items such as flooring, carpeting, lighting and kind and type of tile down to matters of relatively minor consequence such as paint colors.  Also, if a home has been on the market six months the Days On Market will, of course, show as 180 days.  However, if the seller then changes to another agent the re-listing will again start with one day on the market.  Thus, when buyers become interested in a home they are well advised to ask their agent to check the History of the listing (at least in this area) to determine the actual number of days the home has been on the market.  At any rate, here are the days on market, through November of 2007, for Durham, Johnston, Orange and Wake Counties of homes that sold.

Durham - 0-30 days - 68, 31-60 days - 53, 61-90 days - 36, 91-120 days - 31, 120 and over - 62     Johnston - 0-30 days - 54, 31-60 days - 44, 61-90 days - 32, 91-120 days - 23, 120 days and over - 43   Orange - 0-30 days - 18, 31-60 days - 20, 61-90 days - 18, 91-120 days - 9, 120 and over - 25   Wake - 0-30 days - 346, 31-60 days - 260, 61-90 days - 187, 91-120 days - 135, 120 days and over - 217.     There are sales where no Days On Market are Given.  I have not shown these. 

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www:JohnFish.com

Triangle, North Carolina.  Further Definiation Of 2007 Home Sales In Triangle.  Here are the Triangle home sales by zip code in the Wake, Durham, Johnston and Orange counties portion of the Triangle counties during 2007:  22924 - 1,  23917 - 1,  23924 - 1, 23927 - 1,  23964 - 1,  23968 - 1,  24598 - 1,  27207 - 1,  27215 - 8,  27217 - 2,  27231 - 1,  27243 - 6,  27244 - 2,  27253 - 6,  27258 - 1,  27278 - 20,  27298 - 3,  27302 - 21,  27312 - 24,  27330 - 10,  27332 - 4,  27343 - 1,  27344 - 7,  27379 - 1,  27501 - 24,  27502 - 53,  27503 - 2,  27504 - 11,  27505 - 4,  27509 - 3,  27510 - 3,  27511 - 46,  27513 - 51,  27514 - 22,  27516 - 26,  27517 - 29,  27518 - 17,  27519 - 74,  27520 - 67,  27521 - 3,  27522 - 16,  27523 - 5,  27524 - 9,  27525 - 14,  27526 - 65,  27527 - 39,  27529 - 59,  27530 - 1,  27534 - 2,  27536 - 8,  27537 - 6,  27539 - 34,  27540 - 64,  27541 - 1,  27542 - 2,  27545 - 38,  27546 - 9,  27549 - 12,  27551 - 1,  27557 - 4,  27559 - 1,  27560 - 34,  27563 - 3,  27565 - 18,  27569 - 7,  27571 - 8,  27572 - 4,  27573 - 9,  27574 - 5,  27576 - 10,  27577 - 20,  27581 - 1,  27583 - 3,  27587 - 109,  27589 - 2,  27591 - 16,  27592 - 17,  27596 - 25,  27597 - 22,  27601 - 8,  27603 - 53,  27604 - 51,  27605 - 5,  27606 - 21,  27607 - 19,  27608 - 19,  27609 - 17,  27610 - 112,  27612 - 43,  27613 - 48,  27614 - 42,  27615 - 54,  27616 - 74,  27617 - 18,  27701 - 22,  27703 - 47,  27704 - 41,  27705 - 30,  27707 - 37,  27712 - 19,  27713 - 48,  27801 - 1,  27803 - 2,  27809 - 1,  27816 - 1,  27822 - 2,  27856 - 1,  27858 - 1,  27873 - 1,  27880 - 1,  27882 - 1,  27891 - 1,  27893 - 3,  28318 - 1,  28323 - 1,  28334 - 13,  28339 - 8,  28352 - 1,  28359 - 1,  28382 - 1,  28394 - 1,  28521 - 1,  28551 - 1

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com 

Triangle, North Carolina.  The Triangle Home Sale Numbers For 2007 Are In.  For those of you have need to know or are just interested, for whatever reason, here are the monthly single and multifamily home sales numbers for Wake, Durham, Johnston and Orange Counties for 2007.  

JANUARY - Wake - 1,250   Durham - 274   Johnston - 208   Orange - 94         FEBRUARY - Wake - 1,285   Durham - 295   Johnston - 217   Orange - 96         MARCH - Wake - 1,763   Durham - 386   Johnston - 304   Orange - 153         APRIL - Wake - 1,697   Durham - 400   Johnston - 294   Orange - 149         MAY - Wake - 2,056   Durham - 570   Johnston - 281   Orange - 209         JUNE - Wake - 2,225   Durham - 646   Johnston - 344   Orange - 228         JULY - Wake - 1,924   Durham - 483   Johnston - 311   Orange - 229         AUGUST - Wake - 1,872   Durham - 464   Johnston - 298   Orange - 199         SEPTEMBER - Wake - 1,327   Durham - 341   Johnston - 220   Orange - 102         OCTOBER - Wake - 1,456   Durham - 302   Johnston - 237   Orange - 93         NOVEMBER - Wake - 1,224   Durham - 256   Johnston - 209   Orange - 92         DECEMBER - Wake - 1,144   Durham - 290   Johnston - 202   Orange - 105         TOTALS - Wake - 20,692   Durham - 5,027   Johnston - 3,342   Orange - 1,873     

John Fish (919) 696-3474   Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com              

Triangle, North Carolina.  December Inventory of Unsold Homes Increased.  The December unsold home inventory number was 12,894.  That was 25% higher than a year ago.  Residential building permits in Wake County for November and December were down by the same percentage.  The average sales price in December was up 1% for the Triangle to $237,628.  In Wake County, where two-thirds of the Triangle sales come from, the average sales price was down 2.4% to $252,168.

More Condos And Stores For Five Points.  A 4.75 acre parcel brings $3.98 million.  The property, close to Five Points and across from High-Park Village Shopping Center, was purchased by St. Mary’s Associates.  Plans they have for it call for a 23,000 square foot three-story building that will contain ground floor retail space.  It is also to have 40 condos that will face Whitaker Mill Road just east of Bernard Street.  Along Bernard Street there will be 20 townhouses.

Crescent Arbors Apartments sold.  The 180-unit complex was purchased for $18.4 million.  A partnership from Beachwood, Ohio was the purchaser.  The sale price was 15 percent above assessed value.

John Fish (919) 696-3474  Email: marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com

Raleigh, North Carolina.  How Does The Economy Look For 2008?  Did you ever play spin the bottle?  Make a list of economic scenarios for 2008 and arrange them in a circle.  Put a bottle in the middle and spin  it.  Use whatever the mouth of the bottle stops above as your answer.  Newsletter services you can subscribe to as well as the media all have ideas that they are happy to provide you with or, more happily, have you pay for.  The media, in particular, are brimming with nice looking folks who don’t have a clue but talk and talk and talk as if they do.  One of the more expensive ”you pay for it” services is one I don’t subscribe to but have access to through a friend and which is one I have a great deal of respect for.  The publication in question is The Bank Credit Analyst. 

The folks at this service are not blind to the problems of housing and credit but after factoring them into the overall equation they still come down on the side of no recession and slow growth (in the nature of about + 2%) for 2008.  They also look for a strong rebound in the economy during 2009. This is predicated on the belief that the Long-Wave has not run its course and that the Fed gets aggressive in putting more liquidity into the credit markets and quickly.  In this they are out of sync with most economists.  Some economists even say we are already in a recession.  I don’t quite understand how they come to that conclusion since a recession is usually defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).  The second quarter of 2007 saw the GDP up 4.9% and the third quarter up 3.8%.  The guesses for the fourth quarter range from 1% to 2% on the upside so, at least by definition, that we are already in a recession doesn’t jibe.  The Bank Credit Analyst says that despite higher food and energy costs they don’t see inflation as a big problem and, in fact, they think it will decline a bit during 2008.  However, their outlook for 2010 and 2011 is best taken with a couple of aspirin tablets and perhaps a sizeable drink of your choice.

Home prices will continue to fall in most cities during 2008.  As always there are pockets of strength.  The Triangle has been, and appears to continue to be, one of those pockets.  For those of you who are interested in what kind of real estate to be looking at as an investment I would call your attention to land.  In what location is the second question.  The first question is - why?  For you history buffs or investors who don’t mind doing some digging, you might want to do some reading about what the big money people invested in before, during and after depressions and stock market debacles going back to say 1800.  You could go back to the tulip bulb scandal but your reading would take MUCH more time.  More of that at a later date.

Above, I mentioned the Long-Wave theory.  There are many proponents of it and just as many opponents.  Basically, it is the brain child of Nikolai Kondratieff. Those of you who know about it probably have your own thoughts about it while those who don’t could probably care less.  If, however, you would like a quick “down and dirty” on it try the first page of listings under Kondratieff on Google.  Also, you might want to do some reading about R.N. Elliott’s Elliott Wave.  Guru’s on both abound.

John Fish (919) 696-3474    Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com 

Triangle, North Carolina.  Triangle Home Sales.  If you look at the home sale stats for the Triangle through the first nine months of 2007 as total figures rather than broken down by quarter, they don’t reflect the national market and they don’t reflect the national market’s effect on the Triangle either overall or during the third quarter in particular.  They do indicate that the numbers for the fourth quarter and for the year, as a whole, will not make the pleasant reading of past years.  As reported in this blog several times, the Triangle has been one of the best home sale markets in the country during the bursting of the price bubble in several of the overpriced markets and through the problems of sales to underqualified buyers.  The latter problem has yet to play out to buyers, to the real estate market, to mortgage lenders and politically.  Unfortunately, now that the fat is in the fire the politicians who talk the most and know the least want to play politics and throw out the baby with the bathwater; especially in the mortgage lending business.  More of that another time.  Going through the Triangle MLS record of sales of single family detatched homes in the Triangle during the first three quarters of the year vs. 2006 (rounded to the nearest percent) revealed the following: $100,000 to $199,999 - 6,974 vs. 8,264 = -16%, $200,000 to $299,999 - 4,947 vs. 4,963 = even, $300,000 to $399,999 - 2,406 vs. 2,378 = + 1%, $400,000 to $499,999 - 1,397 vs. 1,328 = + 5%, $500,000 to $599,999 - 674 vs. 576 = + 15%, $600,000 to $699,999 - 375 vs. 374 = even, $700,000 to $799,999 - 198 vs. 177 = + 11%, $800,000 to $899,999 - 130 vs. 106 = + 18%, $900,000 to $999,999 - 75 vs. 55 = + 27%, $1,000,000 and up - 169 vs. 113 = + 33%.  This does not split out new homes sales vs. resales.

The sales of Condos and Townhomes during he same period were: $100,000 to $199,999 - 2,993 vs. 2,932 = + 2%, $200,000 to $299,999 - 838 vs. 591 = + 29%, $300,000 to $399,999 = + 5%, $400,000 to $499,999 - 61 vs. 54 = + 11% and $500,000 and up were 54 vs. 69 = - 22%.  This also, does not split out new sales vs. resales.

The eight country Triangle area consists of Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Orange, Person and Wake Counties. 

John Fish (919) 696-3474    Email: Marvmax@mindspring.com   Website: www.JohnFish.com